Implied Odds

In previous posts we’ve discussed the ideas of pot odds and equity, but when you think you may be behind in a hand and drawing to hand that may beat your opponent’s there is another factor to consider and that is the idea of implied odds. Implied odds are essentially the odds that you will get paid off in the event that you make the best hand, and playing a loose-aggressive style can help you to get paid off more than a lot of other playing styles would.

Let’s look at a couple of examples of where implied odds would come into play.

Say we’re playing a six-max $1/$2 cash game and we’re on the button (last position). UTG (first to act) opens for a raise of $7 and we look down and see JsTs. This is a great hand for playing in late position because it can flop a lot of drawing-type hands and two-pair hands that may very well have your opponents drawing to a better hand that can be very profitable if played correctly. We call the $7 and both blinds fold. We see a flop with $17 in the pot and it comes 9sQh6d. We’ve flopped an open-ended straight draw and our opponent bets $12. If our opponent has a Q then we’re only look for an 8 or a K to make the better hand giving us eight outs or approximately 36% equity. Now our opponent has bet so much that it doesn’t make mathematical sense to call here and see a turn card, but what if he has something like KQ? In this respect our implied odds improve because a K would give our opponent two-pair, but it would give us the best possible hand. Depending on the type of person you’re playing here, it may very well be worth paying to see the next turn card because the chances of you winning a big pot are very good.

Now let’s look at the same situation with a slightly different flop. We still have JsTs and the flop comes KsQd2s. Here we’ve flopped another open-ender, but this time we have a flush to go with it so if we are behind to a K or Q we have about 52% of making the best hand. However, there are a number of scare cards for our opponent such as any A, which would be a higher card than his pair of Ks or Qs, and any spade brings in a flush. While we should never be folding here, our implied odds are significantly decreased because of the way the board is coordinated. If our opponent puts out even a pot-sized bet we should be ready to call here, but a lot of cards that make our hand will stop any betting from our opponent and we probably won’t make nearly as much money. While the A of spades is a good card for us because it completes our flush, our opponent will be very weary of this card and may not be willing to put any more money into the pot. An 9 of hearts, clubs, or diamonds is going to give us our best chance of getting paid off because our straight is more disguised.

Implied odds are based more on the player than the cards, so it’s important to keep track of who is playing which kind of style. You may get paid off by looser opponents, especially if you’re playing loose as well, but tighter opponents won’t be so quick to put money in the pot when they could potentially be behind. In the next post we’ll talk about how to take advantage of these tighter players using a loose-aggressive style.

As always, questions and comments are welcome.