Fold Equity

While we've discussed actual hand equity in previous posts, I wanted to dive in a little deeper this time and give some insight on what’s known as “fold equity”. Fold equity is essentially equity that can be added to your hand if you think that your opponent will fold to a bet or a raise. This can be incredibly useful if you’re playing a loose-aggressive style because you’re going to be betting a lot of unmade hands such as straight and flush draws. By utilizing fold equity we actually increase our chances of winning which gives us extra equity in the hand. However, it’s essential to know what the chances of your opponent folding could be, and if you’re playing loose and aggressive you will lose fold equity because your opponent will be more likely to call you knowing that you could be betting with a draw. First we’ll go over what fold equity looks like and then we’ll go through some examples.

In it’s most basic terms, fold equity looks something like this:

• If it is extremely likely that your opponent will fold to a bet or raise, then you have good fold equity.
• If it is unlikely that your opponent will fold to a bet or raise then you have little fold equity.
• If your opponent is never folding to a bet or raise then you have absolutely no fold equity.

An important thing to remember is that if the way you have played the hand doesn't make much sense, your fold equity is diminished considerably. If you check the flop and the turn and then fire a big bluff you’re more likely to get called because you haven’t played the hand like you had anything in the first place.

While the mathematics are pretty straightforward, it’s not important to know that exact numbers at the table, but having an estimation will give you an edge over those who don’t understand or know them. The equation is simple and looks like this:

Fold equity = (chance our opponent will fold) x (our opponent’s hand equity)

Let’s look at an example:

We’re playing a 6-player $1/$2 cash game and we have JT on the button. Our opponent in front of us raises to $6 with KT. We call and both blinds fold so it is heads-up,  we are in position, and the pot is $15. The flop comes KQ6. Although we don’t have a made hand, this is a great flop for us. We have a flush draw and an open-ended straight draw, so any A, 9, or spade with improve our hand. Our hand equity is roughly 55% while our opponent’s is 45%. Now our opponent bets $10. This is a hand that we should be raising, but let’s consider our opponent’s fold equity. Let’s say that our opponent will fold 50% of the time to a big raise here. Looking back at the formula to determine fold equity, it will look like this:

• Fold equity = (chance our opponent will fold) x (our opponent’s hand equity)
• Fold equity = (0.5) x (45)
• Fold equity = 22.5%

Now we would add that fold equity to our hand equity which would look like this:

• Our equity = (hand equity) + (fold equity)
• Our equity = (55) + (22.5)
• Our equity = 77.5%

In this way, we are actually taking away some of our opponent’s equity and giving it to ourselves. Besides having a good drawing hand and considerable hand equity, we have added more equity to our hand because there is the chance that our opponent will fold. However, what if we’re playing against an opponent that will only fold in this spot 20% of the time? Then it will look like this.

• Fold equity = (0.2) x (45) = 9%
• Our equity = (55) + (9) = 64%

As you can see, we still hand considerable equity in the hand, but because our opponent is only folding 20% of the time instead of 50%, it diminishes our equity by 13.5% which is substantial.

Now in the example shown above we were able to know our opponent’s exact two cards which won’t happen in a real-life situation, so the best you can do is to put your opponent on a range and try to determine your fold equity from there.

Hopefully I've helped give some insight into the theory of fold equity and, as always, questions and comments are welcome.