The Quicksand Theory

            The final piece I’d like to focus on for our blog assignment is the theory of “The Quicksand Trap”. It’s common knowledge that if one gets stuck in quicksand that they will sink faster if they are struggling harder. The same can be said about poker. One costly mistake can lead to several others and before a player knows it, they are totally broke. It’s not a new concept to the game; in fact most people call it “tilting”, but I found quicksand to be a more appropriate metaphor for the actions that take place.

            There are fundamentals which should be followed in order to avoid falling into the Quicksand Trap. First is good bankroll management. If you walk into a casino or start playing online, the general rule is that you should have at least fifteen buy-ins for the game you wish to play. So if you want to play $1/$2 no-limit where the maximum buy-in is $200, then you should have at least $3000 that you are willing to play with so that you can handle the swings of the game but not go broke. Another, and while this sounds simple, it is a hard discipline to master, is patience and self-realization. You need to be able to see where mistakes are made, and in the world of online poker there are several different forms of software that will help you detect leaks in your game. Unfortunately this doesn’t exist in the real world.

            Let’s say you’re playing at a $1/$2 6-max cash game and your opponent raises in middle position with A♠K♠ to $8. We obviously can’t know exactly what his exact holding is, but we call on the button with A♦T♦. Both blinds fold and we go to the flop. Both players have exactly $200 in their stacks and the pot is $19. The flop comes out A♣T♠4♦. So we’ve gotten lucky here and outflopped our opponent. In this situation we are a huge favorite to win the pot. Our opponent continuation bets to $16 and we just call. We go to the turn with a pot of $51 and the turn is the K♦. This is by far the worst card in the deck for us. Not only does it make a better two pair for our opponent, but it’s also going to be hard for us to believe that we’re beat here. Maybe we were slow-playing the flop so we could hope for another bet from our opponent on the turn. He bets again, this time he for $40. Again, in our minds there isn’t much to think about here. The pot is $91 and we have $168 left behind. We could shove all-in now, but we decide to just call. We go to the river with $131 in the pot and $138 left behind. There’s almost no shot that all the money doesn’t go in here. Hoping to get paid off, our opponent shove all-in for his last $138. We call and see the bad news. This is where the Quicksand Theory comes into play. Many players would then reload for another $200 and go after the $200 that they just lost in the previous hand, so they start raising with weak holdings and playing super aggressive. This is something that your opponents will pick up on very quickly and by doing this you’ve just put a target on your back. There’s not much you could have done to avoid losing that pot; it was just bad luck. However, by realizing that this was just one hand out of many that you will play and not struggling to get “your” money back, you can continue to play your best game and avoid this trap.

            These kinds of things do happen in poker. While skill and knowledge can give you a huge edge over your opponents, luck does factor in. Even the best in the game go broke. The most important thing to do is move on, accept it, and continue to play to the best of your ability.

            As always, questions and comments are welcome.

The Meta-Game

Poker isn’t all about the cards you hold and the amount of chips on the table. It is a thinking man’s game, and one of the biggest considerations in the realm of thinking about the way poker is played is the “Meta-game”. The Meta-game is known as “the game outside of the game”, so it is based on previous actions from you, your opponents, hand histories, history with a particular player, and so on. By paying attention to the way your opponents play, you can make easier and more profitable decisions at the table. Many players don’t realize that they follow certain betting patterns based on the type of hand they have, but if you know this then you can certainly take advantage of it.

A good example of the using the Meta-game is calling a small to moderate-sized bet on the river with a hand you are sure you’re losing with. This accomplishes two things:

1. It allows you to see your opponent’s hand
2. It can establish a loose image for yourself at the table which you can use later to your advantage.

By calling with a losing hand, you are losing money in the short-term, but you can use this information to make more money in the long-term and make up for this particular loss.

You’ll find that the Meta-game will work much more efficiently against opponent with whom you have history at the tables. If you’ve played with them before and you’ve paid attention to their playing styles then it will be easier for you to know when you’re beat and when you’re ahead. Let’s look at a very basic example of the Meta-game.

We’re playing at a six-max $1/$2 cash game with an opponent that we have played with several times. We know that this particular player knows you play a loose-aggressive style and that you are willing to try and steal pots when you can. We also know that because of this knowledge that this particular opponent will be willing to call you down with marginal holdings to catch you bluffing. We both started the hand with $200 (100 BB). We are in middle position and see we have J♠T♠ - a perfectly suitable hand to raise with. We make it $6 and our opponent on the button calls. Both blinds fold and the pot is $15. Effective stacks are now $194. The flop comes out J♣J♦5♥. There’s nothing that we really need to protect against since we have such a strong hand, so we decide to slow play our hand and check. Our opponent check as well and we see a turn of 5♦. This puts two-pair on the board and our opponent is most likely going to think that ace-high will be good here a large percentage of the time. By using the information we know about this opponent and knowing that he thinks we will steal a lot of times in this spot we put out a bet of $12. This accomplishes two things:

•  We are building a pot with our full-house
• We are making what can look like a very bluffy bet here, so we’re likely to get called with almost any ace.

Now our effective stacks are $179 and the pot is $39, so we have lots of wiggle room. We go to the river and it comes the 8♥. This is a very inconsequential card for the board as it’s not likely to have helped either players’ hand. Now we want to extract as much value as possible from this hand. There are a couple of routes we could take here if our opponent does have ace-high and thinks the two-pair on the board are good enough for him to win or chop the pot. We could

• Shove all-in
•  Over-bet the pot, but not move all-in
•  Bet the size of the pot or slightly less, maybe around $35

We want to get maximum value from our hand, so shoving $179 into a pot of $39 probably isn’t the best idea. If our opponent is any type of thinking player he will probably not call because the risk is too high. Over-betting the pot could work against some players, but I’ve found that a majority of the time that you probably will not get called for the same reason as moving all-in. Making a pot-sized bet here is probably the best move. It still has the ability to look like a bluff because you would probably bet less if you really wanted to get paid off, and many players can’t stand the idea of losing to a hand that they might have won or chopped the pot with. They call and you turn over your full-house. They show you their A♦K♠ and you win the pot.

Because of your image as a loose player who likes to try and steal pots, you were able to get the maximum value for your hand due to previous history with this opponent. Another example of using the Meta-game would be targeting a specific player because they just lost a big hand, so they’re likely to play badly against you. There are many ways to use the Meta-game, and while it should only be used against players that you’re familiar with, it shouldn’t take you too long to pick up on players’ tendencies if you just watch the action.

As always, questions and comments are welcome.

Stack-to-Pot Ratio (SPR), Part Two

In the last post we identified what stack-to-pot ratios were and how we could use them when that figure was low, but what if we have a higher SPR? How do we commit to hands with higher SPRs as opposed to lower ones? As we went over in the first part of this post, lower SPRs are easier to play due to the smaller stacks size in relation to the pot. There aren't a lot of tricky plays to be made with a low SPR. For example:

We are playing against a loose, mediocre player and we hold AQ. Effective stacks are $60 and there is already $25 in the pot with a flop of Q75. Our opponent cannot put us to a tough decision because our SPR is 2.4, so if our opponent moves all-in, we should have no problem calling here with what will be the best hand most of the time. However, what if the effective stacks were changed from $60 to $300? Then our SPR goes up to 12. If we bet and then get raised, the rest of the hand may be trickier for us to play because we have so much money left in our stacks in relation to the size of the pot. 

In this post we'll look at different size SPRs, how they can be beneficial, what problems they present, and how to create a target SPR. First let's look at the categories of SPRs:

Low SPR: 0-6
Medium SPR: 7-16
High SPR: 17+

So if your SPR represents how many pot-sized bets you are able to put in post-flop, how do we play hands with higher SPRs? Let's look at an example:

We're playing a $1/$2 6-max cash game. We have $200 and everyone has us covered. We are in middle position and we find ourselves with K♣K♠ so we make a standard raise of three times the big blind to $6. We get a caller on the button and the small and big blinds fold. The pot is $15 and we have an effective stack of $194. Our SPR is 12.9. The flop comes Q♥7♠5♥. We then continue and bet $12, but our opponent raises to $45. Even though we’re likely to have the best hand here, our opponent has put us to a tough decision. Do we just call? Should we move all-in? If we do move all-in here and get called, it will generally be by a better hand than ours. By tweaking one little part of this hand, we can play it more easily.

It’s the same situation, but instead of raising to $6, we raise to $12. We still get called by the player on the button so now there is $27 in the pot, and we have $188 behind. Now our SPR is only 6.9. By tailoring our preflop raise, we can make a plan around the hand that will make it easier for us to play. Say we bet $22 and our opponent raises to $75. The pot is now $102 and since we only have $166 left, it’s much easier to get the rest of our stack in here instead of facing tough turn and river decisions. By tailoring our preflop raises to meet our target SPR, we reduce the difficult decisions we may be forced to make on later betting streets.

What about hands with medium-sized and high SPRs? What types of hands should we be playing with here? Typically with medium-sized SPRs we want to be playing hands like sets, two pair, good drawing hands, and flushes and straights. With high SPRs we should be playing top-tier hands like very strong draws, full-houses, and big flushes or straights. The idea behind this is to get in as much money as possible when we stand the chance of having the best hand or making the best hand. Let’s say we’re playing the same $1/$2 game and our opponent in middle position raises to $6. We are on the button with $500 and our opponent has us covered. We look down and find 5♣5♠. We call and both blinds fold. The pot is $15 and we have $496 behind. Now our SPR is 33. This is incredibly high, but the flop comes out 5♥5♦Q♠! It’s going to be very hard for our opponent to put us on one 5, let alone two of them. If our opponent has a hand like AQ or KQ, they’re going to have a hard time folding in this spot. In this situation it’s good to have a high SPR because we want to get as much money in the pot as possible. We won’t be faced with hardly any difficult decisions with this hand.

In essence, stack-to-pot ratios give us a better understanding of our risk vs. reward and they can help us to plan commitment around a hand more efficiently. This can give you an edge over your opponents because many players don’t worry about a difficult decision until they’re faced with one. By knowing how to use SPRs to your advantage, you can manipulate the way the hand is played and you benefit.


As always, question and comments are welcome.

Stack-to-Pot Ratio (SPR), Part One: Introduction

Many Texas hold'em players know when they should push all of their chips in the middle, but few know the mathematical principles behind this decision. If you have a short stack and you look down at a hand like AK, you know that you should try to get all of your money in while your hand is most likely the best. What many players don’t know is how to plan commitment around hands which, while often overlooked, is a fundamental part of the game. This is where the idea of stack-to-pot ratios comes into play.

So, what is stack-to-pot ratio? In its simplest terms, stack-to-pot ratio is the size of the effective stack divided by the size of the pot on the flop. An effective stack is the smallest stack that is involved in a hand. If you are playing a pot heads-up and you have $200 in your stack, but your opponent only has $100, the effective stack is $100 because you cannot win or lose any more than that amount, so basically you’re only playing a stack of $100 as well. The whole idea behind the stack-to-pot ratio is to balance your risk versus your reward. We’ll look at a quick example to start and then we’ll go more in depth.

Say we’re playing a $1/$2 cash game and we raise with A♥A♦ in middle position. The button calls and both blinds fold. The pot is now $15 and both our opponent and we have effective stack sizes of $100. Our SPR looks like this:

6.67 = 100/15

So what does this mean? Essentially it means that you are more committed to your hand, but this is based on a number of variables such as the way your opponent plays, their range, the texture of the board, and what you consider to be your maximum SPR. If the flop comes out 8♠9♠T♠, then we may have some problems. If our opponent moves all-in here, it’s easier to find a fold because we only have one pair with no draw to the flush on a highly coordinated board. Although an SPR of under 7 is generally easier to play, we need to know why this is true.

Lower SPRs means less decisions after the flop. Let’s use the same example as above but change the flop. Let’s say it comes out Q♠3♥7♣ and our opponent moves all-in. We still have an SPR of 6.67 with an overpair and not a whole lot to worry about, so we should be willing to call, especially against a looser player. As previously stated, stack-to-pot ratio is a way to balance your risk versus your reward. On a flop like this, we should be willing to risk $100 to win $115 on a queen-high board.

In this entry we’ve looked at the introduction to small SPRs; in the next section we’ll look at how playing high SPRs will change the commitment around your hand and how you should play them.

As always, questions and comments are welcome.

The REM Process, Part Four: Maximize

We've gone over the first two steps in the REM Process (range, equity) and now we use this information to make the best possible decision about what to do with our hand. If we've assigned our opponent a range, then we can estimate our equity against their range of possible hands. Once we estimate our equity against that range, we use the final step in the REM Process to make the best possible decision that we can. This brings us to "maximize". By maximizing our decision-making process, we can do our best to get the most money in the pot when we are ahead, and the least when we are behind. 

The fundamental theorem of poker states: “Every time you play a hand differently from the way you would have played it if you could see all your opponents' cards, they gain; and every time you play your hand the same way you would have played it if you could see all their cards, they lose.”
By knowing what our opponents are holding at all times, we would obviously be able to make the best possible decisions with all of our hands. Unfortunately, since poker is not a game played face-up, using the REM process is the most efficient, and really only way to make the best decisions you can. 
If you are contemplating a bet or a raise, you should always ask yourself: “Do I want my opponent to call or fold?”

·         If you want your opponent to call then you are value-betting.

·         If you want your opponent to fold then you are bluffing.

·         If you’re not sure yet what you want your opponent to do, then you should not be betting.

Let’s look at a couple of examples:

We are playing a six-max $1/$2 cash game. It is folded around to us on the button and we find A♠K♦. We raise to $7 to and big blind calls. The pot is now $15. The flop brings A♣8♥5♣. This is a spot where we will most likely be ahead a good amount of the time, so we want to be our hand for value. We want to get our money in the pot for value with what is more than likely the best hand because we can get called by all sorts of weaker hands here such as a weaker ace and a flush draw. If we assign our opponent’s range to a flush draw, we want to bet it so that they are getting bad odds to call. If we only bet half of the pot here we are giving our opponent 3-to-1 odds, and they would be right to call to try and hit a third club. However, if we bet something like $11 or $12, we are only giving them around 2.2-to-1 odds on a call and they will be making a mistake by calling here. With a flush draw our opponent has about 36% equity in the pot, giving us 64%. While sometimes they will call and make a flush, it will be much easier for us to shut down our betting because the third club is a big scare card for our hand. It’s likely that we won’t lose any more money in this hand.

Now let’s look at a different example:

It’s the same situation: it’s a six-max cash game and it is folded around to us on the button and we find A♦Q♦. We raise to $7 and the big blind calls. The flop this time comes out T♦5♠8♦. Now we have no pair here, but we have two over cards and a draw to the best possible flush. The big blind checks. Although we would be bluffing here, we can still bet because of the substantial amount of equity we have in the pot. Any ace, any queen, and any of the nine remaining diamonds will more than likely give us the best hand here, so we have an estimated equity of around 52%. If our opponent has a hand like JT, then we are essentially a coin flip to win the hand, and by applying pressure we may be able to make him fold a ten. However, what if he has a hand like AT or QT? That takes away our outs to an ace or queen because our opponent would make two pair. In this case we have a perceived equity of 47%. Although we have lost some of our equity, we can still bet here to try and get our opponent to fold or make the better hand.
As we established, the idea of maximizing is making the best possible decision with the information you have at hand. This will allow you to, with the other two parts of the REM Process, to deduce useful information and receive better insight as to whether you should be betting, checking, or folding.

I hope this series helped shed some light on the idea of the REM Process.

As always, questions and comments are welcome.

The REM Process, Part Three: Equity

In the last post, we talked about our opponent’s range, or possible hands he could be holding. Now that we’ve successfully put our opponent on a range of hands, it’s time to figure out our equity in the pot.

Equity, in its simplest terms, is our stake in the pot. It’s the percentage of times our hand will win against our opponents. By figuring our equity in the pot, we can then make decisions based around our equity, and it will be easier to know if continuing the hand is profitable in the long-term. As a quick reminder, we must remember that it is not necessary to put our opponent on his two exact cards, but merely a range of what he or she could be playing. Let’s look at an example:

Let’s say we’re playing a six-handed $1/$2 cash game and we are in late position with K♥Q♥. It is folded around to us and we raise it to $7. The small blind folds and the big blind calls. The pot is $15. Now the flop comes A♥Q♣5♦. We’ve caught a piece of this flop, but there is an overcard to our Q on the board. The big blind checks and we bet $11, which the big blind then calls. The pot is now $37. Here’s where we should stop and take a second to analyze the hand with the information we have.

The big blind called out of position, meaning he knows he’ll be first to act on every betting round. This should lead us to believe that he may have a stronger hand than ours. However, we can take hands like AA, AK, and AQ out of his range as he more than likely would have re-raised us before the flop. With our bet and his call we can safely put hands like AJ, AT, A9 suited, or A2-A5 suited in his range. It is also possible that he could have a hand like QJ, QT, or even KQ in his hand. There is also a slim chance that he could be holding 55 and is slow-playing a set of 5’s. Against any hand like AJ, AT, A9, A4, A3, or A2, our equity is essentially the same. We need to catch another Q or a K to win the pot. Going back to the Rule of Four and Two we can estimate our equity by multiplying our number of outs (3 Ks and 2 Qs). This gives us an estimated equity of 20%, so only one in five times will we win this pot outright. However, what if our opponent thinks that we don’t have any pair and is defending with a hand like QJ? That only gives him three outs (3 Js) to take the pot from us, putting his equity at around 12% and giving us an 88% chance of winning the pot. Lastly, what if our opponent is holding A5? This would be one of the worst hands our opponent could have against us because even if we hit a K and make two-pair, our opponent is still beating us. Our equity in this situation is roughly 13%.

We will receive more information on the hand during later betting rounds, and that’s when our next post will come in handy. In this post I just wanted to cover how to calculate equity based on our perceived range of our opponent’s hand.

Next week we will cover the final part of the REM Process which is the “M” which stands for “maximize”.

As always, questions and comments are welcome.

The REM Process, Part Two: Range

While all three parts of using the REM process are important, possibly the most important is the first and that is to put your opponent on a range of hands. Many players, especially novice players, believe that they should be putting their opponent on two specific cards out of the over 1,300 combinations of hands. Now, if you can do that it's all well and good, but many get caught up in this line of thinking, get set on the idea that they have a dead read on an opponent's hand, and lose money because of it. Therefore, it is much more valuable to be able to put your opponent on a range of possible holdings and gather information as the hand progresses. A lot of times it's much easier, with the information at hand, to eliminate possible hands from your opponent's range than it is to narrow that range down or define it. Let's look at an example:

If a tight player raises from first position, you can take hands like Q♦4♦ and hands like it out of their range. In fact they’re not going to play basically any trashy hands in first position. So how can we narrow down this person’s range? We look for their tendencies. We look for physical tells, what we’ve seen them show down with in the past, and betting patterns and sizes. One thing that many players are not aware of is that they will reveal the strength of their hand by the amount that they raise before the flop. Say for example that a weak-tight player is raising three times the amount of the big blind with hands like KQ, KJ, AJ, AT, but they’re coming in for five times the size of the big blind with hands like AA, KK, or QQ. This person essentially just told you what they had, so you can make the best decision based on those types of patterns. One of the keys to playing a loose-aggressive style is that you should keep your raise sizes the same amount no matter what two cards you hold. If you’re going to raise with AA, you should raise it the same way you would with something like 8♣9♣. By doing this you are able to make it much more difficult for your opponents to put you on a specific range of hands from the very beginning.

One thing that you should be doing is reassessing your opponent’s range with each card that is dealt. What if your opponent likes to slowplay big hands such as flopped sets or top two pair? Let’s say a tight player has raised from first position. We can likely put his range around AA, KK, QQ, AK, or maybe even JJ or TT. Then the flop comes K♥7♦3♣. Your opponent checks, and you check. Now we’re thinking that we can eliminate KK or AK from his range. We see a turn card of J♠ and we put in a bet and without hardly thinking, our opponent puts in a raise. As stated before it’s unlikely that our opponent would raise with something like KJ, so now we can pretty easily put our opponent on either KK or AK. If our opponent likes to slowplay, it’s more than likely KK, which is the best possible hand right now. Your evaluations will change with each new card and action and will give you more information and allow you to narrow down your opponent’s range.

In the next section we will take a look at the second part of the REM process: equity and how you can make the best decisions possible after you have put your opponent on a range of hands.

As always, questions and comments are welcome. 

The REM Process, Part One: Introduction

This will be the first of a four-part post focused on the REM process. First we’ll look at an introduction to the process. REM stands for:

• Range
• Equity
• Maximize

Many novice players believe that the goal of playing against an opponent is to be able to put that opponent on their exact two cards. Since there are 1,326 possible starting hands in Hold’Em, this can be a daunting task. Instead we want to focus on a particular range of hands that our opponent could be playing. With the action that our opponents takes, we should be able to narrow down their range significantly.

Equity, as we’ve mentioned before, is your stake in the pot or your chances of winning the pot against the range that you have assigned to your opponent. We’ll look at an example shortly.

Finally, we look at maximize. This is the idea of making the best possible play against your opponent given the prior information you have gather (range and equity).

In this article we’ll touch briefly on these three topics and later articles will be dedicated to each process respectively.

Let’s say we’re playing in a $1/$2 cash game with six players. The player who is first to act is a very tight player who only raises to $7 with maybe top 1-2% hands such as AA, KK, QQ, or AK. It folds around to us and we look down at A♦J♦. Knowing our opponent’s range, we can then calculate our perceived equity against their hand which is, at best, around 33%. The pot is $10 and we would have to call $7 to play giving us odds of about 1.4:1 to call. By using the maximum amount of information at hand we know that we are getting bad odds to call, so our best play here is to fold.

While there is much more to the REM process, we’ll touch on that next week.

As always, questions and comments are welcome.

Fold Equity

While we've discussed actual hand equity in previous posts, I wanted to dive in a little deeper this time and give some insight on what’s known as “fold equity”. Fold equity is essentially equity that can be added to your hand if you think that your opponent will fold to a bet or a raise. This can be incredibly useful if you’re playing a loose-aggressive style because you’re going to be betting a lot of unmade hands such as straight and flush draws. By utilizing fold equity we actually increase our chances of winning which gives us extra equity in the hand. However, it’s essential to know what the chances of your opponent folding could be, and if you’re playing loose and aggressive you will lose fold equity because your opponent will be more likely to call you knowing that you could be betting with a draw. First we’ll go over what fold equity looks like and then we’ll go through some examples.

In it’s most basic terms, fold equity looks something like this:

• If it is extremely likely that your opponent will fold to a bet or raise, then you have good fold equity.
• If it is unlikely that your opponent will fold to a bet or raise then you have little fold equity.
• If your opponent is never folding to a bet or raise then you have absolutely no fold equity.

An important thing to remember is that if the way you have played the hand doesn't make much sense, your fold equity is diminished considerably. If you check the flop and the turn and then fire a big bluff you’re more likely to get called because you haven’t played the hand like you had anything in the first place.

While the mathematics are pretty straightforward, it’s not important to know that exact numbers at the table, but having an estimation will give you an edge over those who don’t understand or know them. The equation is simple and looks like this:

Fold equity = (chance our opponent will fold) x (our opponent’s hand equity)

Let’s look at an example:

We’re playing a 6-player $1/$2 cash game and we have JT on the button. Our opponent in front of us raises to $6 with KT. We call and both blinds fold so it is heads-up,  we are in position, and the pot is $15. The flop comes KQ6. Although we don’t have a made hand, this is a great flop for us. We have a flush draw and an open-ended straight draw, so any A, 9, or spade with improve our hand. Our hand equity is roughly 55% while our opponent’s is 45%. Now our opponent bets $10. This is a hand that we should be raising, but let’s consider our opponent’s fold equity. Let’s say that our opponent will fold 50% of the time to a big raise here. Looking back at the formula to determine fold equity, it will look like this:

• Fold equity = (chance our opponent will fold) x (our opponent’s hand equity)
• Fold equity = (0.5) x (45)
• Fold equity = 22.5%

Now we would add that fold equity to our hand equity which would look like this:

• Our equity = (hand equity) + (fold equity)
• Our equity = (55) + (22.5)
• Our equity = 77.5%

In this way, we are actually taking away some of our opponent’s equity and giving it to ourselves. Besides having a good drawing hand and considerable hand equity, we have added more equity to our hand because there is the chance that our opponent will fold. However, what if we’re playing against an opponent that will only fold in this spot 20% of the time? Then it will look like this.

• Fold equity = (0.2) x (45) = 9%
• Our equity = (55) + (9) = 64%

As you can see, we still hand considerable equity in the hand, but because our opponent is only folding 20% of the time instead of 50%, it diminishes our equity by 13.5% which is substantial.

Now in the example shown above we were able to know our opponent’s exact two cards which won’t happen in a real-life situation, so the best you can do is to put your opponent on a range and try to determine your fold equity from there.

Hopefully I've helped give some insight into the theory of fold equity and, as always, questions and comments are welcome.

Implied Odds

In previous posts we’ve discussed the ideas of pot odds and equity, but when you think you may be behind in a hand and drawing to hand that may beat your opponent’s there is another factor to consider and that is the idea of implied odds. Implied odds are essentially the odds that you will get paid off in the event that you make the best hand, and playing a loose-aggressive style can help you to get paid off more than a lot of other playing styles would.

Let’s look at a couple of examples of where implied odds would come into play.

Say we’re playing a six-max $1/$2 cash game and we’re on the button (last position). UTG (first to act) opens for a raise of $7 and we look down and see JsTs. This is a great hand for playing in late position because it can flop a lot of drawing-type hands and two-pair hands that may very well have your opponents drawing to a better hand that can be very profitable if played correctly. We call the $7 and both blinds fold. We see a flop with $17 in the pot and it comes 9sQh6d. We’ve flopped an open-ended straight draw and our opponent bets $12. If our opponent has a Q then we’re only look for an 8 or a K to make the better hand giving us eight outs or approximately 36% equity. Now our opponent has bet so much that it doesn’t make mathematical sense to call here and see a turn card, but what if he has something like KQ? In this respect our implied odds improve because a K would give our opponent two-pair, but it would give us the best possible hand. Depending on the type of person you’re playing here, it may very well be worth paying to see the next turn card because the chances of you winning a big pot are very good.

Now let’s look at the same situation with a slightly different flop. We still have JsTs and the flop comes KsQd2s. Here we’ve flopped another open-ender, but this time we have a flush to go with it so if we are behind to a K or Q we have about 52% of making the best hand. However, there are a number of scare cards for our opponent such as any A, which would be a higher card than his pair of Ks or Qs, and any spade brings in a flush. While we should never be folding here, our implied odds are significantly decreased because of the way the board is coordinated. If our opponent puts out even a pot-sized bet we should be ready to call here, but a lot of cards that make our hand will stop any betting from our opponent and we probably won’t make nearly as much money. While the A of spades is a good card for us because it completes our flush, our opponent will be very weary of this card and may not be willing to put any more money into the pot. An 9 of hearts, clubs, or diamonds is going to give us our best chance of getting paid off because our straight is more disguised.

Implied odds are based more on the player than the cards, so it’s important to keep track of who is playing which kind of style. You may get paid off by looser opponents, especially if you’re playing loose as well, but tighter opponents won’t be so quick to put money in the pot when they could potentially be behind. In the next post we’ll talk about how to take advantage of these tighter players using a loose-aggressive style.

As always, questions and comments are welcome.

The Rule of Four and Two

To be a good poker player it is not absolutely necessary to know every single mathematical approach to the game, but there are some very valuable and relatively simple equations that you can do while sitting at the table which could very well give you an edge over your opponents. One example of this is the mathematical principle of the “rule of four and two”. The rule of four and two allows you to estimate the amount of equity you have with a certain hand as long as you can put your opponent on some kind of range. The amount of equity you have is relative to the size of the pot and the two should never deviate too far from one another. Let’s say we have a 48% chance of winning the hand after the flop then we can call most bets that are up to the size of the pot which would give us two-to-one odds which is 50%. Here you can see how the two are related, but how do we find out what our estimated equity in a certain situation is? This is where the rule of four and two comes into play. Let’s look at an example.

Let’s say we’re playing in a six-max $1/$2 cash game and we are on the button with Ac7c. Our opponent raises from early position to $6 and we decide to call. Everyone else folds their hands so it is just us and our single opponent. The flop comes out Kc7h4c. Now here we have made a pair of 7s, but we could be already beat by a K. However, we also have a flush draw to the best hand with two clubs in our hand and two on the board and if we hit an A then our hand may be good as well. There is $15 in the pot (small blind-$1, big blind-$2, opponent’s raise-$6, and our call-$6). Before the fourth card we can multiply our number of outs, which are cards that would more than likely give us the best hand, by four and come up with our estimated equity. There are three 7s left in the deck, 3 As, and nine clubs, which would give us three-of-a-kind, a higher pair, or a flush respectively. If we multiply those outs (3 7s + 9 clubs + 3As = 15 outs) then we come up with an estimated equity of 60% of winning the hand. Now let’s say our opponent bets $10. That brings the pot up to $25. We would need to call $10 to win $25 which gives us pot odds of 2.5:1. Math indicates that we should call and see another card here. Let’s say that the turn card is the 8d. This doesn’t help our hand at all and though we still have the same amount of cards that will help us, our equity has dropped substantially because there is only one card left to come. So we take our 15 outs and multiply them by two now which gives us an estimated equity of 30%. This means that if our opponent were to bet more than 30% of the pot then we should be folding because, in the long run, this is a call that will cost you money.

Now let’s look at another example:

We’re playing in the same game and we’re on the button with the same hand: Ac4c. Our opponent again raises to $6 in early position. We call and every one else folds. This time the flop comes out Qd2h5s. Now our outs are severely diminished as is our equity. The cards that we would need to catch to make the best hand (assuming our opponent is holding one Q in his hand) are the three remaining As and the four 3s to give us the straight. We take those seven cards and multiply them by four to give us an estimated equity of 28%. But what if our opponent is holding exactly AQ? That takes away our A outs and leaves us with only the four 3s, giving us a 12% chance of winning the hand. Now unless our opponent bets roughly 1/10 the size of the pot, which would be incredibly uncommon, we should not be calling here because the math dictates it.

This is just a basic introduction to the idea of estimating equity and while the numbers are not exactly precise, they’ll only be off be a couple percent at most, so you can get a pretty good understanding of where you stand. However, there are other variables to consider such as reverse implied odds and card ratios, but we’ll cover that later. For now I just wanted to give you a general idea of how to calculate equity and how it relates to the size of the pot.

As always, questions and comments are welcome.

Building an Image

Image at the table is one of the most important things at the poker table. It will play a incredibly large part of how people perceive you and whether or not they pay you off on your big hands. The entire idea behind the game is to make as much money as possible from your good hands, and lose as little as possible with your second-best hands. Playing a loose-aggressive style, as we’ve been talking about, can allow for some huge paydays. If your opponents think that you could be betting with any two cards, they’re more likely to call you down when you have a huge hand. Let’s look at some key factors in building an image at the table:

Firstly, we’ve covered the idea of balancing your range. This, if done correctly, can let your opponents walk right into the traps that you set for them that don’t look like a traditional trapping play. Traditionally if a player makes a huge hand they want to check to appear weak and let the other players put the money in for them. In our case however, a trap would look much differently. We want to represent at all times that we have a made hand so that when we do our opponents think we could very well be bluffing. Let’s look at an example:

We’re playing a 6-max $1/$2 cash game and we’re in first position. We find ourselves with KhKd and we raise it to $6. We get a caller on the button (last position) and a caller in the big blind. The flop comes KsQc7s. This is a great board for us as it’s likely to hit a lot of our opponents’ ranges. Right now we have the best possible hand and we want to make them pay to draw to a better one. If someone is holding two spades or a hand like JT, they’ll likely come along. KQ is absolutely calling every time, as they should. The great thing about having a loose image here is that WE could very well be the ones holding two spades or JT. There are some scare cards for you that could come such as an A or a 9, but your opponent would have to be holding exactly JT to have us beat.

Poker is all about long-term results, so we shouldn’t be afraid to show our bluffs or second-best hands when necessary (only at showdown) and we certainly shouldn’t let a picked-off bluff slow us down. Everyone gets bluffed in this game, but not everyone gets right back into the game afterwards.

As always, questions and comments are welcome.

Floating

In today's poker world, the continuation bet, or C-bet, is incredibly common. The continuation bet is when a player raises before the flop and then continues to bet after the flop is dealt. We talked about having a balanced range is the previous post, and this is an essential part of that balance. Statistically speaking, a player will only connect with the flop about one out of three times. However, if you were to look at your opponents' stats, you would notice that they are betting post-flop much more than 1/3 of the time. They're basically betting on the fact that you didn't connect with the flop in any way, and that you will fold to another bet. So how do we counter this move? How do we defend ourselves against a player who is c-betting 70% of their hands? We can utilize a technique called the "float".

The float is a more advanced play which helps to counter the continuation bet by calling your opponent with nothing. If your opponent is c-betting a vast majority of the time then they obviously can't always have a hand. If your opponent c-bets and you call behind them, this is going to get their attention. If they don't have anything, they may very well shut down the betting on the turn and we can bet here and take down the pot. It's basically announcing to your opponent that you have some piece of the board and that they should continue with caution. Floating is a play best used when you have position on your opponent and the pot is heads-up between the two of you. Let's look at a couple of examples:

Let's say that you're playing a six-max $1/$2 cash game and you have JhTh on the button (last position) and the player in front of you raises to $6. You call and both of the blinds fold. The flop comes 8d5hKd. Now this doesn't help our hand whatsoever, but this is also a  pretty dry board meaning there isn't a lot in the way of straight draws. There is a flush draw with two diamonds out. Your opponent continuation bets $10 into a pot of $15 and you call. There are some cards that could potentially help you on the turn such as a queen or nine, which would give you a straight draw, and any heart will give you a flush draw. This is considered to be "backdoor equity" meaning that if one of these cards comes then you may have a chance of making the best hand by the river and won't have to bluff anymore. However, there are other cards that could potentially help us as well. Another diamond puts a flush on the board and may be a scare card for your opponent, so we could use a diamond as a "bluff out". Now the turn comes the 6d and your opponent shuts down the betting and checks. This is a good opportunity for us to lead at the pot and try to take it away. In order to do so, you should bet like you would with any made hand, so since the pot is $35, you should be betting somewhere around $22-$28. If your opponent folds then you've just taken a pot without making any kind of hand. The float is an effective way to bluff in position and take down pots that you would have otherwise had no chance of winning.

As mentioned before, this is a play best used in position against your opponent. However, it's also important to have a read on your opponent and be sure that they can be c-betting with nothing some of the time. It's equally as important to pick your spots with this play and not overuse it or your opponents will pick up on it and you may find yourself in some sticky spots later in the game. If overused, you may find your opponents checking on the turn so you can bet and then they can raise. Any type of bluff is essential to the game, but should never be overused. Otherwise you will find that you have become an easy target for the other players at the table.

As always, questions and comments are welcome.

Balancing Your Range

Now that we’ve talked a little bit about finding your range of starting hands, I’d like to talk a little bit about how to balance that range. This is a relatively simple concept which is meant to keep your opponents from being able to put you on a certain range of hands. For example: say you raised three times the big blind with hands like 77, 88, 99, AT, AJ, but you raised four times the big blind with premium hands like AA, KK, AK, QQ, it will be much easier for other players to pick up on those tendencies. In its simplest terms, range balancing is where you play the exact same way with a wide range of hands in certain situations. Much of this is going to depend on how often you are continuation betting, or betting after the flop after you’ve raised pre-flop.

Let’s say you’re playing a 6-max 1/2 cash game online and you are in late position with JhTh. You raise it to six dollars and get called by the big blind. The flop comes out JdTc4d. With the big blind having only called, you can be pretty sure that you’ve got the best hand. You have a made hand and should bet it for value here. However, any hands like KQ, Q9, or any two diamonds are drawing to a better hand than yours. You want to keep up the betting and give them bad odds to draw to a better hand.

Now let’s look at a different example with the same hand and pre-flop action. You raise $6 in late position with JhTh and get called by the big blind. This time the flop comes out Qh9c4h. This time you don’t have a made hand, but you should be betting it like you do. This is called a semi-bluff because, although you don’t have a hand yet, you have considerable equity (~52%) to make the best hand. You hand an open-ended straight draw and a flush draw. Any K, 8, or heart will make your hand and more than likely give you the best of it. Of course, in situations like this, there are implied odds to think about, but we’ll talk about that later.

Now we’ll look at one last example. Same game, same hand, same situation. You raise to $6 in late position with JhTh and get called by the big blind. This time the flop comes out Ah6d5c. This flop in no way helps your hand, but because you raised before the flop, you can bluff and represent an ace here. Sometimes by just keeping the pressure on and betting the flop you can take down the pot then and there. This obviously won’t always be the case, but this is why a balanced range is so important to have in your arsenal. If your range is balanced then your opponents will know that sometimes you’ll have a made hand here and sometimes you won’t. The idea is to bet it the same way you would if the ace did help you.

Essentially, having a balanced range will make it much harder for opponents to play against you because you could very well be holding any two cards.

As always, comments and questions are welcome.

Playing Your Range 9/05/2014

In this post I’d like to discuss starting hand ranges for the loose-aggressive player. One of the things that I think appeals to some many players about playing a LAG style is the creativity it allows you to employ in your play. In the world of poker today, it’s not uncommon to see people 3-betting, 4-betting, and even 5-betting light. While the 5-bet bluff can often be incredibly exciting and sometimes lucrative, it’s imperative to know when to pick your spots.

            Let’s say you’re playing a 6-max cash game and you find yourself holding 9T suited in late position with a raise in front of you. This hand has good flopping value for many reasons. Firstly, it’s less likely to run into hands that have you dominated that will call or re-raise you. Secondly, with a hand like this you can flop a lot of good draws that will more than likely hit your opponent’s range, so you can really apply pressure with multi-way draws or make them pay to draw if you flop a hand like two pair.

            Now let’s flip the tables. What if you’re in first position (UTG) with the same hand? While this could certainly be a raising hand, it loses a lot of its value when you no longer have position on your opponent. As the saying goes, “position is power” in poker. Sure you can flop big with it, but as stated above, your opponents could really put the pressure on you with combo draws or make you pay to draw. Playing this hand from out of position (OOP) also may decrease your implied odds of getting paid off. Let’s say that you call with 9hTh and the board come JhQs5h. You’ve flopped a huge draw, but if you call all the way down with this hand you’re much more unlikely to get paid off should you make your hand. However, with a loose-aggressive approach to the game, there is always the option to represent a made hand here and take the betting lead. This is something we’ll get into in later posts.

            Taking a LAG approach to the game will open you up to more variance, as you’ll be playing more hands and your raising range may essentially turn into your 3 and 4-betting range. In the next post about playing marginal hands we’ll cover this topic more extensively. As always, comments are appreciated.

Playing a Loose-Aggressive Style

            When Chris Moneymaker won the World Series of Poker Main Event in 2003, the face of poker would be changed forever. People were rushing to play online poker and soon Texas Hold ‘Em was a household name with millions of people playing every day. What I want to focus on is a style of play that has evolved over the last decade and has become almost synonymous with online poker, and because of that, it has moved into the world of live poker. I’m talking of course about a loose-aggressive (LAG) approach to the game, and this is what I’d like to focus on for this post.

The loose-aggressive form of play is inarguably the most sought after approach to the game: it creates action on the table, it builds large pots, and is a good way to keep people guessing. On the flip side of that however is susceptibility to huge swings, lots of variance, and miles of frustration. If you’re a tight-passive player, you may not be forced to fix many things about your game as it’s very straight-forward. However, playing a LAG style can make you your own worst enemy. The point of the game of poker is to let others make the mistakes for you, but if you’re playing loose-aggressive, then you’ll often have your foot on the gas which can cause you to be the one making the mistakes. You’ll often find yourself in spots where someone has set a trap for you, or people will call you down with marginal hands because your bluff ratio will be much higher than your opponents’. There are absolutely ways to counteract these events from taking place and gain an edge over your opponents, and that’s what I’d like to focus on in upcoming posts. We’ll cover:

• Range of starting hands
• Bet sizing
• How to merge your range
• Building an image
• How others perceive you, how you perceive them, how you want others to perceive you, and many other topics.

Chris Moneymaker at the 2003 World Series of Poker.