The Quicksand Theory

            The final piece I’d like to focus on for our blog assignment is the theory of “The Quicksand Trap”. It’s common knowledge that if one gets stuck in quicksand that they will sink faster if they are struggling harder. The same can be said about poker. One costly mistake can lead to several others and before a player knows it, they are totally broke. It’s not a new concept to the game; in fact most people call it “tilting”, but I found quicksand to be a more appropriate metaphor for the actions that take place.

            There are fundamentals which should be followed in order to avoid falling into the Quicksand Trap. First is good bankroll management. If you walk into a casino or start playing online, the general rule is that you should have at least fifteen buy-ins for the game you wish to play. So if you want to play $1/$2 no-limit where the maximum buy-in is $200, then you should have at least $3000 that you are willing to play with so that you can handle the swings of the game but not go broke. Another, and while this sounds simple, it is a hard discipline to master, is patience and self-realization. You need to be able to see where mistakes are made, and in the world of online poker there are several different forms of software that will help you detect leaks in your game. Unfortunately this doesn’t exist in the real world.

            Let’s say you’re playing at a $1/$2 6-max cash game and your opponent raises in middle position with A♠K♠ to $8. We obviously can’t know exactly what his exact holding is, but we call on the button with A♦T♦. Both blinds fold and we go to the flop. Both players have exactly $200 in their stacks and the pot is $19. The flop comes out A♣T♠4♦. So we’ve gotten lucky here and outflopped our opponent. In this situation we are a huge favorite to win the pot. Our opponent continuation bets to $16 and we just call. We go to the turn with a pot of $51 and the turn is the K♦. This is by far the worst card in the deck for us. Not only does it make a better two pair for our opponent, but it’s also going to be hard for us to believe that we’re beat here. Maybe we were slow-playing the flop so we could hope for another bet from our opponent on the turn. He bets again, this time he for $40. Again, in our minds there isn’t much to think about here. The pot is $91 and we have $168 left behind. We could shove all-in now, but we decide to just call. We go to the river with $131 in the pot and $138 left behind. There’s almost no shot that all the money doesn’t go in here. Hoping to get paid off, our opponent shove all-in for his last $138. We call and see the bad news. This is where the Quicksand Theory comes into play. Many players would then reload for another $200 and go after the $200 that they just lost in the previous hand, so they start raising with weak holdings and playing super aggressive. This is something that your opponents will pick up on very quickly and by doing this you’ve just put a target on your back. There’s not much you could have done to avoid losing that pot; it was just bad luck. However, by realizing that this was just one hand out of many that you will play and not struggling to get “your” money back, you can continue to play your best game and avoid this trap.

            These kinds of things do happen in poker. While skill and knowledge can give you a huge edge over your opponents, luck does factor in. Even the best in the game go broke. The most important thing to do is move on, accept it, and continue to play to the best of your ability.

            As always, questions and comments are welcome.

The Meta-Game

Poker isn’t all about the cards you hold and the amount of chips on the table. It is a thinking man’s game, and one of the biggest considerations in the realm of thinking about the way poker is played is the “Meta-game”. The Meta-game is known as “the game outside of the game”, so it is based on previous actions from you, your opponents, hand histories, history with a particular player, and so on. By paying attention to the way your opponents play, you can make easier and more profitable decisions at the table. Many players don’t realize that they follow certain betting patterns based on the type of hand they have, but if you know this then you can certainly take advantage of it.

A good example of the using the Meta-game is calling a small to moderate-sized bet on the river with a hand you are sure you’re losing with. This accomplishes two things:

1. It allows you to see your opponent’s hand
2. It can establish a loose image for yourself at the table which you can use later to your advantage.

By calling with a losing hand, you are losing money in the short-term, but you can use this information to make more money in the long-term and make up for this particular loss.

You’ll find that the Meta-game will work much more efficiently against opponent with whom you have history at the tables. If you’ve played with them before and you’ve paid attention to their playing styles then it will be easier for you to know when you’re beat and when you’re ahead. Let’s look at a very basic example of the Meta-game.

We’re playing at a six-max $1/$2 cash game with an opponent that we have played with several times. We know that this particular player knows you play a loose-aggressive style and that you are willing to try and steal pots when you can. We also know that because of this knowledge that this particular opponent will be willing to call you down with marginal holdings to catch you bluffing. We both started the hand with $200 (100 BB). We are in middle position and see we have J♠T♠ - a perfectly suitable hand to raise with. We make it $6 and our opponent on the button calls. Both blinds fold and the pot is $15. Effective stacks are now $194. The flop comes out J♣J♦5♥. There’s nothing that we really need to protect against since we have such a strong hand, so we decide to slow play our hand and check. Our opponent check as well and we see a turn of 5♦. This puts two-pair on the board and our opponent is most likely going to think that ace-high will be good here a large percentage of the time. By using the information we know about this opponent and knowing that he thinks we will steal a lot of times in this spot we put out a bet of $12. This accomplishes two things:

•  We are building a pot with our full-house
• We are making what can look like a very bluffy bet here, so we’re likely to get called with almost any ace.

Now our effective stacks are $179 and the pot is $39, so we have lots of wiggle room. We go to the river and it comes the 8♥. This is a very inconsequential card for the board as it’s not likely to have helped either players’ hand. Now we want to extract as much value as possible from this hand. There are a couple of routes we could take here if our opponent does have ace-high and thinks the two-pair on the board are good enough for him to win or chop the pot. We could

• Shove all-in
•  Over-bet the pot, but not move all-in
•  Bet the size of the pot or slightly less, maybe around $35

We want to get maximum value from our hand, so shoving $179 into a pot of $39 probably isn’t the best idea. If our opponent is any type of thinking player he will probably not call because the risk is too high. Over-betting the pot could work against some players, but I’ve found that a majority of the time that you probably will not get called for the same reason as moving all-in. Making a pot-sized bet here is probably the best move. It still has the ability to look like a bluff because you would probably bet less if you really wanted to get paid off, and many players can’t stand the idea of losing to a hand that they might have won or chopped the pot with. They call and you turn over your full-house. They show you their A♦K♠ and you win the pot.

Because of your image as a loose player who likes to try and steal pots, you were able to get the maximum value for your hand due to previous history with this opponent. Another example of using the Meta-game would be targeting a specific player because they just lost a big hand, so they’re likely to play badly against you. There are many ways to use the Meta-game, and while it should only be used against players that you’re familiar with, it shouldn’t take you too long to pick up on players’ tendencies if you just watch the action.

As always, questions and comments are welcome.